But if there is a trend emerging of Trump’s approval rating dropping into the 30s, it’s very bad news for House Republicans heading into the midterm elections.
If Trump’s approval rating drops into the 30s, the bottom may fall out for House Republicans. Since 1946, a point decline in a president’s approval rating is worth about 0.25 to 0.33 point in the national House vote. That is, a drop in Trump’s approval rating from 42% (CNN’s latest poll) to 36% (the ABC News/Washington Post poll) could increase the Democratic advantage by 2 percentage points.
For Republicans to have a realistic (i.e. within the margin of error) shot of maintaining control of the House in 2018, Trump’s approval rating must remain at least in the low 40s nationally.
For them to have a 50% chance of holding on to power in the House, Trump’s approval rating will likely need to rise into the mid-40s.
Right now, Trump and his fellow Republicans are, if anything, going the other (i.e. wrong) way.